Pitching

Last March or so, I called WEEI to suggest the Red Sox might consider starting the season with a six man rotation.

At the time, Jonathan Papelbon had been moved into a potential starting pitcher role. The Red Sox had the following pitchers in place as potential starters:

1. Curt Schilling
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Josh Beckett
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Jonathan Papelbon
6. Clay Buchholz
7. Kason Gabbard
8. Kyle Snyder

The year before, the Red Sox again had in their mind one too many starting pitchers and traded Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. (Do not forget about Clement...)

I did not even make it on the air with WEEI as the producer told me "Dennis and Callahan will laugh you off of the air."

Then, before the start of the 2008 season, I heard Dennis and Callahan talk about how the Red Sox have an excess in starting pitching and might consider starting the season with a six man rotation including:

1. Josh Beckett
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Tim Wakefield
4. Curt Schilling
5. Clay Buchholz, and
6. Jon Lester.

I find it interesting that for three years in a row, the Red Sox have entered a spring training with seemingly an abundance of starting pitching, only to be in May in all three seasons with a shortage. In 2006, they traded away Arroyo for a bat that did not work out. They lost Clement for much of that season. In 2007, the Red Sox opted to keep the pitchers they had and move Papelbon to the bullpen in a highly successful move.

Now, in 2008, it is May. Curt Schilling can barely play toss with his kids. Buchholz broke a nail. Beckett has already had a stint on the disabled list. Despite Daisuke giving up more walks (30) than hits (28) in 47 and 2/3 innings, he is still a shaky 6-0, if it is possible to be shaky at 6-0.

The point is, pitchers are fragile. There is probably close to a 75% chance that each pitcher will not make all of their starts in a season. Bring on Colon!

Or does it matter? It is widely seen that pitching only matters in the playoffs. Take Fausto and C.C. as exhibits "A" and "B." In the playoffs, it is hard to find someone who would not take half of Schilling, all of Beckett, and a shaky Daisuke over any other rotation in the American league regardless of their regular season statistics.

So as fans, we will live with Daisuke's walks. We will accept Wakefield's near perfect nights followed by 2+ inning, 8 hit, 6 run outings. We will wait until July for Schilling to weigh in. We will watch as Beckett ramps up to his best fall stuff. Our only goal is to make the playoffs with whatever mis-match pitching rotation we have as long as the top three pitchers in the playoffs are Beckett, Schilling, and Dice-K. Maybe next time I call WEEI, I will not get screened...